job revolution is coming,we can't ignore it

job revolution coming,we can't ignore it,

PHOTO: We are still only at the very beginning of the debate over the future of work, and the capabilities of technology.

We need to confront the changing nature of work and technology, and admit that jobs are on the line. Let's not bury our heads in the sand and let the discussion be dominated by vested interests and naysayers, writes Tim Dunlop.

While the Labor Party Conference was in full swing last week, there was a Fringe Conference running parallel to it. I went to a few sessions, including one that was called The Past and Future of Work.

It was an eye-opener, though not in the way I anticipated.

Overall, the speakers provided an interesting and heartfelt discussion, but what stood out was their total failure to mention any of the following: artificial intelligence, 3D printing, financialisation, the "sharing" economy.

Overall, the speakers provided an interesting and heartfelt discussion, but what stood out was their total failure to mention any of the following: artificial intelligence, 3D printing, financialisation, the "sharing" economy.

The words "robot" or "robotics" were not heard once.

How exactly do you talk about the future of work without mentioning any of these things - developments that are drastically changing what we understand by "work"?

It seems to me that the world is increasingly divided into two political types: those who think that - thanks to various technological developments - jobs we take for granted today will disappear and will not be replaced; and those who think this is some sort of massive exaggeration.

You'll notice that this is pretty similar to how people divide up over the issue of climate change too - acceptance and denial - and this is hardly surprising.

The debate often becomes less over the facts than a defence of entrenched positions (think coal and renewable energy).

As it happens, we are still only at the very beginning of the debate over the future of work, and the capabilities of the technology - especially robotics and artificial intelligence - still aren't clear enough for people to be able to say with any certainty what will happen.

So while we can point to, for example, the trialling of driverless cars on the roads of South Australia, and the actual use of driverless trucks in Rio Tinto's mines in Western Australia, the idea that entire swathes of jobs in the transport industry will no longer be required still seems remote.

Even an authoritative report like that put out by Oxford University in 2013 can seem somewhat unreal. Researchers Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne looked at 702 occupations in the United States and concluded that within the next 20 years, "about 47 per cent of total US employment is at risk" from technological advances.

If this seems scary - that almost half the jobs they looked at are likely to disappear inside 20 years - it isn't hard to find equally authoritative types who will tell you to calm down a bit.

Shell braces for extended low oil prices with mass job cuts

PHOTO: Shell has announced a large cutback in exploration and development spending. 

Global energy giant Royal Dutch Shell is sacking 6,500 of its workers as the lower price for crude oil bites into its profits.

Shell's quarterly profit dived by almost 40 per cent because of the oil slump and, with the oil price set to remain low, it has slashing capital spending by another $US3 billion.

The action by Shell comes as it seeks to convince investors it can withstand a long period of lower oil prices, with its planned purchase of BG Group yet to be approved.

Matthew Beesley, head of global equities of Henderson Global Investors, told AM that the Shell job cuts represent 7 per cent of its entire workforce.

"They are very keen to signal to investors that should oil prices stay at these low levels, currently below $US50, then there's more they can do in terms of job cuts, more they can do in terms of cost cuts and more they can do in terms of capital expenditure reduction," Mr Beesely said from London.

"Shell, in trying to buy BG, are making a bet that oil prices are going to go higher, so for them it's important in advance of a completing the acquisition that they get their own house in order so they can weather lower prices if indeed we are in an environment where prices are lower for longer."

Mr Beesley believes the jobs losses are likely to extend beyond staff directly employed by Shell.

"I think that's inevitable. There will be cuts from the contracting work phase too and, on top of that, Shell is looking to acquire BG and you have to think that most of the white-collar workforce at BG will be vulnerable too," Mr Beesley added.

Shell's proposed acquisition of BG Group is now more important than ever given bets that the boom in demand for LNG might offset a lower crude oil price.

"The Curtis Island project in Queensland is a project that is ramping up now, and is a key part of the attraction for Shell in acquiring BG," Mr Beesley said.

"It will give Shell in total the best part of a third of the global LNG market by the time we get out to 2018.

"Of course for them to make the amount of money that they hope to make out of this business, they will need oil prices and gas prices to be higher."

The job cuts at Shell follow a record $US1.05 billion quarterly loss posted by fellow energy giant Peabody Energy.

Total coal volumes were down 8.5 per cent in the June quarter prompting Peabody to write down its coal portfolio by $US901 million.